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ghoroneh, H., ghaani, F., babaki rad, A. (2025). Scenarios of Propagation of Religion in virtual social networks in the ten-year horizon. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 6(2), -.
hassan ghoroneh; fateme ghaani; azam babaki rad. "Scenarios of Propagation of Religion in virtual social networks in the ten-year horizon". Electronic and Cyber Defense, 6, 2, 2025, -.
ghoroneh, H., ghaani, F., babaki rad, A. (2025). 'Scenarios of Propagation of Religion in virtual social networks in the ten-year horizon', Electronic and Cyber Defense, 6(2), pp. -.
ghoroneh, H., ghaani, F., babaki rad, A. Scenarios of Propagation of Religion in virtual social networks in the ten-year horizon. Electronic and Cyber Defense, 2025; 6(2): -.

Scenarios of Propagation of Religion in virtual social networks in the ten-year horizon

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
Article 3, Volume 6, Issue 2, June 2025    PDF (1.11 M)
Document Type: Original Article
Authors
hassan ghoroneh* 1; fateme ghaani2; azam babaki rad3
1Assistant Professor, Department of Governance, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2Department of Islamic Sciences , Faculty of Human Sciences , Imam Reza International University , Mashhad , Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
Receive Date: 13 February 2025,  Revise Date: 20 April 2025,  Accept Date: 25 April 2025 
Abstract
The goal is to determine the scenarios of religion promotion in virtual social networks in the horizon of the next ten years. To scenario bulding, thematic analysis methods, the analytical matrix of the network of impacts and uncertainty, and narrative have been used, and the scenario method has brought unity to the collection of these methods. A total of 40 Tablighi experts, 13 participated in a semi-structured interview and 27 participated in a questionnaire.

By focusing on context information from four areas including; Propagation of religion (9), social networks (15), technological field (8) and socio-cultural field (11) and in total (42) driving forces and key factors related to the future were identified. The 42 variables obtained as the input of the impacts and uncertainty network. With the participation of experts, as a result, "virtual religion" and "diversity of religious propagation tools" are known as elements with critical uncertainty that affect the future space, and based on these two critical uncertainties, four scenarios: (1)co-evolutionary; (2) unilateral; (3)Encountering and(4) empty capacity is narrated with emphasis on the structure of each scenario.
Keywords
Keywords: virtual social networks; Propagation of Religion; virtual religion; scenario
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